Europe’s road haulage recovery isn’t catching up

Europe’s road haulage sector is recovering, but the pace remains slow and uneven. Transport demand is edging up after the downturn of 2023, yet volumes are still below pre-crisis levels.

According to an analysis by ING, European road transport demand is expected to grow by around 1% in 2026, with large differences between countries, freight segments and fleet profiles.

Transport demand improved in 2025 following the sharp contraction two years earlier. However, total transport volumes measured in tonne-kilometres remain on average around 1.5% below earlier peaks. ING expects moderate and stable growth this year, but stresses that the recovery remains fragile and uneven across Europe.

Protectionist trade policies, geopolitical instability and their knock-on effects on supply chains and consumer confidence are set to continue shaping the market in 2026.

Industrial goods remain the weakest segment for road haulage. Energy-intensive industries, including steel and chemicals, continue to struggle with competitiveness, leading to production cuts and site closures across several European countries. Germany, which accounts for more than a quarter of European road transport activity, remains a particular drag on overall volumes.

Truck mileage data from Germany point to stagnating volumes, while countries such as Spain and Poland are recording stronger growth in line with more robust economic performance.

Hauliers across Europe reduced capacity following the demand contraction of 2023. According to ING, the European haulage capacity index was nearly 1% lower in late 2025 than a year earlier, reflecting fleet reductions, bankruptcies and the removal of older vehicles from service.

Despite some improvement in freight rates, margins remain under pressure. Spot rates, which account for roughly one-fifth of the market, converged with contract rates after the 2023 downturn, underlining the sector’s underlying weakness.

Rising wage costs and higher toll charges, particularly in countries such as the Netherlands and Belgium, will be difficult to pass on fully in 2026.

ING expects consolidation to continue as smaller companies face increasing pressure from investment requirements related to digitalisation, sustainability and regulatory compliance.

Источник: trans.info