The global freight forwarding market: growth will cool to 2.5% in 2026
The global freight forwarding market closed 2025 in reasonable health, reaching €208.1bn in value and posting real-terms growth of 4.4%. But a new forecast from Transport Intelligence (Ti) makes clear that the post-pandemic tailwind has weakened. The industry is entering a more constrained era, shaped by weaker trade growth, geopolitical disruption, ocean freight overcapacity and shifting manufacturing patterns.
Ti projects growth will cool to 2.5% in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of just 2.3% through to 2030. In nominal terms, the picture is even starker: the market barely moved in 2025, expanding by just 0.5% when exchange rates are held constant.
The IMF expects global GDP growth to slow to 3.1% this year, weighed down by Middle East conflict and associated energy shocks. The WTO is forecasting merchandise trade volume growth of just 1.9% in 2026, down from 4.6% in 2025. For freight forwarders, that kind of macro drag is hard to outrun.
Ocean freight grew 4.6% in 2025, supported by e-commerce volumes, expanding international trade and demand for integrated multimodal transport. But the sector is now wrestling with historic overcapacity, a structural problem that geopolitical disruption has only partly masked by pushing some cargo onto longer routings and alternative corridors. Ti forecasts sea freight forwarding will grow by 2.6% in 2026 and at a 2.9% CAGR through to 2030.
Air freight posted 4.1% growth in 2025, boosted partly by shippers switching from sea as the price gap narrowed, and partly by Chinese e-commerce volumes and pre-tariff loading into the US. The outlook for 2026 is more turbulent. Ti says the Middle East conflict that erupted in late February cut global air cargo capacity by 22%, with Asia-Europe capacity through the region down 39%. Forwarders have had to reroute and restructure at pace. Long-term, air freight forwarding is forecast to grow at a more modest 1.6% CAGR through to 2030.
Behind the headline numbers, a more fundamental shift is under way. Manufacturing capacity is moving from China to Vietnam, India, Indonesia and Mexico, a trend with clear implications for trade lane volumes and the networks forwarders have built around China-centric flows.
Source: trans.info